France is electing its next president.
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| French voters at a polling station in Le Touquet in northern France on Sunday, during the first round of the presidential elections |
■ Voting began at 8 a.m. (2 a.m. EST) and will continue until 7 tonight in smaller towns and until 8 in larger cities.
■ Voters have to choose from 11 candidates, with the four leading ones so close in the polls that it is too risky to predict the outcome.
■ The two top vote-getters will go to a runoff election, which will be held on May 7.
■ Some see parallels to Britain’s departure from the European Union, known as “Brexit,” and Donald J. Trump’s rise in the United States.
Here’s what to watch for right now.
How many French will vote
In this election, there are many undecided voters and many who will potentially abstain. Polls estimate that 20 percent to 30 percent of the French will not cast a ballot. Some of those are undecided and could make up their mind at the last minute.
A change in the abstention rate either up or down — could alter who wins, but it will also show how fed up the French are with the political choices offered by the system. Typically, about 80 percent of eligible voters go to the polls. The abstention rate will be released three times: at noon, 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. — or just after.
Another indicator of overall French disillusionment will be the number of protest votes cast. France has a tradition of voters’ putting a blank piece of paper in the ballot box to register their discontent with the options.
Cities that indicate the direction of the vote
While no one city is a perfect mirror, how the vote goes for the mainstream right candidate, François Fillon, in Versailles, a heavily Roman Catholic suburb of Paris that often votes mainstream right, could indicate his strength nationwide.
The Catholic vote is an important one in France, but voters are uncertain about Mr. Fillon because he has been shadowed by a nepotism scandal that led to charges of embezzlement.
The area around the city of Hénin-Beaumont, now a stronghold for the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, used to lean heavily left. The strength of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate in northeastern France, where he battled Ms. Le Pen to represent the area in the legislative elections in 2012, could indicate his strength this year. In 2012, they both lost and did not make it to the run off.
The city of Nice could be an indicator of the strength of Ms. Le Pen. The city, which has had a mainstream right mayor for many years, suffered a terrorist attack last summer that killed more than 80 people.
Read Also:http://www.timenewsng.com/2017/04/all-you-need-to-know-about-french.html
France’s overseas territories
Usually of little significance in national votes, this year, assuming the election is close, the “Outre mer” could make a difference.
They include French Polynesia; Guiana on the northern coast of South America; the island of Mayotte off the Mozambique coast; the Caribbean islands of Guadalupe, Martinique and St. Bartholomew; the Indian Ocean island of Réunion; and the islands off the coast of northeast Canada, St. Pierre and Miquelon.
Collectively they have an estimated 7 percent of the electorate.
Early returns
Exit polls will become available shortly after 8 p.m., and they are usually accurate. But this year, with the four leading candidates within four points of one another, every vote could make a difference.
The actual tallies will not come until later in the evening. You can view the breakdown as they come in for different cities on the Ministry of Interior’s website.
(The New York Times)
