 |
| (L to R) French presidential election candidates, right-wing Les Republicains (LR) party Francois Fillon, En Marche! movement Emmanuel Macron, far-left coalition La France insoumise Jean-Luc Melenchon, far-right National Front’s Marine Le Pen, and left-wing French Socialist party Benoit Hamon, pose before a debate organised by the French private TV channel TF1 on March 20, 2017 in Aubervilliers, outside Paris. |
France goes to the polls for two rounds of presidential elections on April 23 and May 7, a historically unpredictable contest thanks to its insurgent political outsiders and slew of scandals.
At stake is the future of the European Union, as well as France’s labor, immigration and economic policies. The first round of voting in April will see 11 candidates battle it out. Unless someone wins more than half of the ballots, the two most successful candidates will battle for the presidency in the second round vote on May 7. Here’s a guide to the whos, whats, and whys of the elections:
The candidates
Marine Le Pen
The far-right National Front leader is leading most first-round polls, and has attracted the most attention in the race. Shehas attempted to ‘detoxify’ a party started by her father Jean-Marie, an alleged anti-Semite who wanted to deport 3 million foreigners, called homosexuality “a biological and social anomaly,” and said Nazi-era gas chambers were a “detail of history.” Le Pen has broadened her appeal among France’s Northern industrial areas by stressing for increased powers of the state, which is a break from the party’s traditionally anti-welfare stance. She has also welcomed a number of gay men into the party, including National Front’s Vice President Florian Philippot.
The 48-year-old does however support the repeal of same-sex marriage, wants to end “mass immigration,” and to reassert French cultural identity through a number of measures that include a ban on dual-nationality for non-Europeans. On foreign affairs, Le Pen advocates for more protectionism and wants to hold a referendum on E.U. membership – potentially causing a “Frexit” that few think the political and economic bloc could survive.
Emmanuel Macron
The 39-year-old is a social and economic liberal who polls suggest is the favorite to defeat Le Pen in the second round of voting (see below). The former economy minister quit the cabinet of current— and deeply unpopular — President François Hollande in 2016 to start his own cross-party political movement called En Marche! (On the Move!). Macron, who is a former Rothschild banker, is a pro-E.U. evangelical, which stands in direct contrast to his biggest competitor Le Pen. He wants to scale back special wealth taxes, encourage entrepreneurship, cut corporation tax, and relax France’s labor laws. He also wants to pump $50 billion into a public investment plan for infrastructure, job training and a shift to renewable energy. He recently told TIME’s Vivienne Walt that he is ideologically opposed to Le Pen and hopes to “convince the French people that a positive project and a progressive view is more adapted to our challenges.”
François Fillon
The candidate for the centre-right Republicains party once looked like the man to beat, having defeated former President Nicolas Sarkozy, and popular Bordeaux mayor Alain Juppé in the Nov. 2016 primaries. Fillon, 62, is a pro-E.U., free-market evangelist whose plans to end the 35-hour workweek, cut half a million in public sector jobs, and drastically reduce public spending (by over $100 billion) has resonated with business leaders. The staunch Catholic is opposed to abortion, surrogacy and voted against same-sex marriage. Like Le Pen, Fillon wants curbs on immigration, calls for an alliance with Russia to fight “Islamic totalitarianism” and wants to strip returning French jihadists of their citizenship.
However, his campaign has been badly hurt by a corruption scandal involving his family (see below). He has dropped in overall polls from first place to third, but it is unclear as to whether he is out of the running.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
The 65-year-old firebrand quit the Socialist party after 30 years in 2008 and has now started his own party, France Insoumise (France Unbowed), which has attracted widespread support among the traditional hard-left, including the French Communist Party. The populist left-winger has proposed a $106 billion tax-and-spend economic programme and wants to replace the presidential system with a parliamentary system. He also plans to pull France out of NATO, has supported Russia’s military actions in Ukraine and Syria, and would renegotiate the terms or leave the E.U. — another threat to the bloc.
To attract younger voters, he launched his campaign as a hologram in a Paris rally while addressing an audience in Lyon, 310 miles away. His recent climb in the polls has been attributed to his fiery speeches and strong performances in two televised debates, especially when he clashed with Le Pen. “Leave us in peace with religion” he told her on April 4. “We’re no obliged to suffer your caprices, your little finds, your way of imposing on us your way of life that is not ours.”
Benoît Hamon
The Socialist Party candidate was not favored to win the primaries, but defeated his former boss Manuel Valls to become the party’s candidate with Hollande declining to run. He was education secretary in Hollande’s cabinet, but resigned in 2014 over the government’s shift to a more centrist economic stance. His policies include a universal basic income of $795 for all citizens, a reduction in the 35-hour working week and a tax on industrial robots. But his left-leaning policies have failed to win over many of his fellow Socialists, some of whom have defected to Macron. He attempted to build an alliance with Mélenchon, but the plan collapsed — along with his realistic hopes of making the second round, Bloomberg reports.
The other contenders include:
Bordeaux mechanic Philippe Poutou, from the New Anti-Capitalist Party, who became a folk hero for cutting into Le Pen and Fillon for their respective corruption scandals during the April 4 televised debate.
Nationalist Francois Asselineau, from the Popular Republic Union party, wants an immediate ‘Frexit’ from the E.U. if elected— a plan Le Pen describes as “brutal.”
High-school teacher Nathalie Arthaud of the Workers’ Struggle party. According to her website, the far-left politician wants to increase to salaries and pensions, ban companies from making redundancies, and for the “means of productions,” like factories and banks, to be put in the “hands of society.”
The independent candidate Jean Lassalle has been a lawmaker since 2002 and wants to return power to local mayors. He once walked across France for nine months and in 2006 went on hunger strike for 39-days in a bid to stop Japanese firm Toyal from closing a factory in his constituency.
Solidarity and Progress party’s Jacques Cheminade is a former civil servant who wants to abandon the E.U. and NATO and is known for his conspiracy theories.
The right-wing Eurosceptic Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, from Stand Up France party, wants to leave NATO, create a higher ethical standards for politicians, end sanctions with Russia and create a Marshall Plan for Africa.
The issues
Employment
The French unemployment rate (around 10%) is higher than the Eurozone average of 9.5% and more than double the rates in neighboring U.K. and Germany. Youth unemployment is even higher (at around 25%), due in part to the country’s rigid labor market and a tax system that makes it expensive for employers to hire or fire full-time employees. The lack of economic prospects is a decisive factor in this race, and it has led some young people to flock to Le Pen. According to a March IFOP poll, the National Front is the most popular among those in the 18-24 age bracket.
Economy
France’s sluggish economy has been the source of much gloom for the locals. Entrepreneurs and an estimated 60,000 millionaires have left the country due to heavy regulation and high taxes. According to the Economist, former President Jacques Chirac’s attempted overhaul of pensions and social security in the ’90s was the last massive attempt at reform but it collapsed under a wave of protests. Le Pen’s solution is to throw more barriers up and increase social welfare. Fillon laid out an austerity plan while Marcon wants fiscal restraint and deregulation. It’s unclear if any of them would have the parliamentary support to carry out significant reforms, if elected.
Security
This has been a hot-button topic since a wave of terror attacks by Islamic extremists killed more than 350 people in 2015, prompting Hollande to put France in an extended state of emergency. As of May 2015, around 1,800 French nationals joined ISIS and other militant groups in Syria and Iraq, according to the Soufan Group. Legitimate fears that the radicalized will launch further atrocities has caused deep cultural rifts in France and the the public’s attention has now shifted to issues surrounding national identity, Islamic extremism and immigration.
Immigration
France is also home to one of the largest Muslim minorities in Europe, many who live in the poorest suburbs of the country’s biggest cities. There has been a growing unease towards the country’s minority groups since the spate of attacks, which Le Pen has exploited for political gain. Europe’s refugee crisis, exacerbated by asylum seekers fleeing wars in the Middle East and Africa, has led to France receiving more than 85,000 asylum applications in 2016. The conservative backlash to the latest events April 2016 poll by Le Figaro found that 47% of French citizens felt the Muslim community poses a ‘threat’ to their national identity.
The controversies
Personal and financial scandals are rampant in French political life, especially around election season: In 2012, a sex-scandal destroyed former IMF chief Dominique Strauss Kahn’s presidential ambitions, and Sarkozy’s 2007 divorce, a few months after his election, was widely covered in the French press. The only difference in this year’s race is the sheer breadth of disputes, driven by an angry French electorate tired with its political class:
‘Penelope-gate’
Conservative candidate François Fillon has seen his approval ratings fall after he was put under investigation, and later criminally charged, over allegations that he and his British-born wife, Penelope, embezzled some $720,000 in state funds by setting up fake parliamentary assistant jobs. The ballooning ‘Penelope-gate’ scandal, which was first revealed in the Canard Enchaîné newspaper, shattered the former Prime Minister’s “Mr Clean” image. He has been further tarnished by reports that a political fixer bought him two expensive suits costing more than $13,000. Fillon has remained defiant in the face of calls to withdraw from the race, blaming his “political assassination” on the media and his opponents.
He also had to apologise in March for tweeting a caricature of his rival, Macron, with a hooked-nose, wearing a top hat and carrying a red sickle to cut a cigar. Fillon admitted that it evoked anti-Semitism. Macron is not Jewish but the cartoon seemed to refer to his past job as a Rothschild banker.
Le Pen’s legal troubles
Le Pen, who is a member of European Parliament, faces her own investigation over false employment. Brussels’ investigators allege that Le Pen misused E.U. funds to pay her bodyguard around $45,000 and her France-based assistants nearly $400,000, which should have only been spent on E.U. parliamentary assistants.
There is also separate inquiries into her use of violent ISIS images during a Twitter spat against a journalist who compared her party to the terrorist group. E.U. lawmakers voted to remove her parliamentary immunity in March, so that French prosecutors could take legal action against her.Le Pen denies all allegations and the accusations seem to have done little to dent her popularity.
But allegations of bigotry still dog the National Front. In March, one of the party’s counsellors was suspended after her was caught on a secret camera playing down the systemic murder of Jews during the Holocaust, CNN reports. Le Pen was also criticized by Israel and French politicians in April after she denied that the French state was responsible for rounding up Jews for deportation to Nazi death camps during World War II.
Macron’s blunder
The front-runner had to apologise for calling France’s history in Algeria a “crime against humanity” in Feb. After a wave of criticism from right-wing opponents, Macron told a rally that he was “sorry to have offended you, to have hurt you,” France 24 reports. Algerians lived under French colonial rule for more than 100 years, and its bloody war for independence is thought to have killed around 1.5 million Algerians.
That month, Macron also had to bat away a sleazy allegation of an extramarital gay affair with Radio France chief executive Mathieu Gallet. “If you’re told I lead a double life with Mr Gallet, it’s because my hologram has escaped” Macron told supporters — a joke at Melenchon’s expense. The centrist candidate married his former high-school teacher Brigitte Trogneux in 2007.
The polls
Forecasting the two stage elections has been more difficult than usual due to the volatile race, complex two-stage vote and vast number of candidates. It is also highly unlikely any candidate will win the first-round vote, something that has never been done in French history.
Le Pen and Macron are running neck-in-neck in the latest round of polling and they were widely believed to battle it out in May’s second round. But their poll numbers have dipped to 22% and 23% respectively, while Melenchon’s latest rise in the polls has thrown the race wide open. According to the latest Cevipof poll for Le Monde newspaper, the France Unbowed leader, who is at 19%, is vying with Fillon, 19.5%, for third place. Like the Britain’s vote to leave the E.U. and the U.S. presidential election, the close numbers might defy forecasters — pollster Nate Silver has warned that the unusual consistency of the data suggested poll “herding,” when pollsters copy one another’s results instead of relying on their own numbers.
A simple two-man horse race has been further clouded by the high number of undecided voters and abstentions. Opinion polls are indicating that more than a third of France’s 45.7 million voters might abstain in the first round of voting, something analysts are worried about. According to Reuters, around one third of those intending to vote are still undecided with reasons ranging from political apathy, dislike of certain politicians and disgust over scandals. All this suggests that this topsy-turvy race might have a few more surprises up its sleeve.
(TIME)
